A Brief Introduction to Global Warming
CLIMATE CHANGE – Also commonly called “Global Warming”
A Brief Introductory Summary
John Burton 9/18/06
The Science When earth is warmed by the rays from the sun, some of these rays
are reflected back into the atmosphere, and the net balance of what we receive
and what we lose by reflection is what has kept our earth at its existing
temperature pattern for thousands of years. What has changed is that since we
have begun to burn fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas—the resulting emission
of carbon dioxide has increased the normal amount of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, even in very small amounts, acts
as a partial barrier to the heat rays being reflected from the earth’s surface back
into the upper atmosphere. So the partial blocking of this reflection increases the
net warming effect of the sun’s rays—the earth is now warmer than in the past
centuries before mankind began to use fossil fuels. We are taking the vast
amount of carbon that has been stored underground for thousands of years and
converting it to carbon dioxide, which we are putting into the atmosphere and
thereby adding warmth.
A few other gases have this so-called “greenhouse” warming effect and, together
with carbon dioxide, are called “greenhouse gases.” But carbon dioxide is creating
about 80% of the warming, and with its 100 year lifetime in the atmosphere, this
is our main concern. The History of Our Knowledge of Climate Change In 1896,
Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, carried out experiments that demonstrated
the warming effect of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and he predicted that our
burning of coal would raise the global temperature. Starting in 1958, annual
measurements of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been recorded and
showed a steady increase. Since the 1980s scientists have been gathering climate
data from past years and working with computers to determine if the slight
warming we are now having is due to human activity, particularly our carbon
dioxide emissions. And they are using computer models to predict the climate
changes we can expect in this century.
A few scientists used to maintain that any climate changes were due only to
natural causes, but this disagreement has almost ceased.
The study of climate change as caused by man’s activities took a big step forward
in 1988 when the United Nations established a study group, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. This is a group of about
2500 relevant scientists from all over the world. Their first Assessment Report was
issued in 1990 and said it is likely that man’s activities are responsible for much of
the increase of global temperature and the effects of climate changes. In 1995
and 2001, they issued updated Assessment Reports that built on earlier
assessments and incorporated more recent research. Their Fourth Assessment
Report is due in 2007. Meanwhile they have issued several supplementary
reports. Several leading U.S. and U.K. scientific organizations have endorsed the
IPCC reports or have reached similar conclusions.
Responses by Governments to the Predicted Climate Changes
In 1992 at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro,
the principal national leaders pledged to reduce their CO2 emissions to 1990
levels. But they did little to put this promise into effect.
In 1997 at Kyoto, a Protocol was drafted requiring signatories to reduce their
emissions by varying amounts by 2008-2012. By 2005, enough nations had signed
this so it became a formal agreement. All the developed industrial nations have
signed it with the exception of Australia and the U.S. This agreement does not
require any action by China, India or other nations that are ranked as not having
fully developed economies. The reductions required by Kyoto are only a small step
toward the major reductions needed to prevent very damaging effects from
climate change
The next step was to make a new agreement that would include all nations and
follow the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol. This conference was held in
Copenhagen in Dec., 2009. The conference is generally considered to be a failure
although by Obama's intervention the major industrialized countries made non-
binding pledge to later announce specific reduction targets for their countries.
They agreed on establishing a "Green Climate Fund"with a goal of it providing to
the developing nations $30 billion by 2012, rising to $200 billionby 2020. China
and India promised to try to limit their emissions.
.
Some of the Predictions for this Century
Unless drastic reductions are made soon in reducing global carbon dioxide
emissions, among the changes we can expect by 2100 are the following:
• Hurricanes will be more intense due to the oceans becoming warmer.
• Global temperatures will rise several degrees C, with more than average
warming in the Arctic area and in mid-continent areas.
• Ocean levels may rise by nearly a meter with added salt water intrusions
into shore areas.
• Human health will be damaged by increased exposure to infectious diseases
and by agricultural problems, particularly in the developing nations that lack the
resources to take preventive measures.
• Melting of Arctic ice may put an end to the oceans thermohaline current that
warms Eastern Europe and inluences climate throughout the world. This is not
expected to happn before 2200. Meanwhile England is getting warmer.
.
A Brief Introductory Summary
John Burton 9/18/06
The Science When earth is warmed by the rays from the sun, some of these rays
are reflected back into the atmosphere, and the net balance of what we receive
and what we lose by reflection is what has kept our earth at its existing
temperature pattern for thousands of years. What has changed is that since we
have begun to burn fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas—the resulting emission
of carbon dioxide has increased the normal amount of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, even in very small amounts, acts
as a partial barrier to the heat rays being reflected from the earth’s surface back
into the upper atmosphere. So the partial blocking of this reflection increases the
net warming effect of the sun’s rays—the earth is now warmer than in the past
centuries before mankind began to use fossil fuels. We are taking the vast
amount of carbon that has been stored underground for thousands of years and
converting it to carbon dioxide, which we are putting into the atmosphere and
thereby adding warmth.
A few other gases have this so-called “greenhouse” warming effect and, together
with carbon dioxide, are called “greenhouse gases.” But carbon dioxide is creating
about 80% of the warming, and with its 100 year lifetime in the atmosphere, this
is our main concern. The History of Our Knowledge of Climate Change In 1896,
Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist, carried out experiments that demonstrated
the warming effect of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and he predicted that our
burning of coal would raise the global temperature. Starting in 1958, annual
measurements of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have been recorded and
showed a steady increase. Since the 1980s scientists have been gathering climate
data from past years and working with computers to determine if the slight
warming we are now having is due to human activity, particularly our carbon
dioxide emissions. And they are using computer models to predict the climate
changes we can expect in this century.
A few scientists used to maintain that any climate changes were due only to
natural causes, but this disagreement has almost ceased.
The study of climate change as caused by man’s activities took a big step forward
in 1988 when the United Nations established a study group, the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC. This is a group of about
2500 relevant scientists from all over the world. Their first Assessment Report was
issued in 1990 and said it is likely that man’s activities are responsible for much of
the increase of global temperature and the effects of climate changes. In 1995
and 2001, they issued updated Assessment Reports that built on earlier
assessments and incorporated more recent research. Their Fourth Assessment
Report is due in 2007. Meanwhile they have issued several supplementary
reports. Several leading U.S. and U.K. scientific organizations have endorsed the
IPCC reports or have reached similar conclusions.
Responses by Governments to the Predicted Climate Changes
In 1992 at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro,
the principal national leaders pledged to reduce their CO2 emissions to 1990
levels. But they did little to put this promise into effect.
In 1997 at Kyoto, a Protocol was drafted requiring signatories to reduce their
emissions by varying amounts by 2008-2012. By 2005, enough nations had signed
this so it became a formal agreement. All the developed industrial nations have
signed it with the exception of Australia and the U.S. This agreement does not
require any action by China, India or other nations that are ranked as not having
fully developed economies. The reductions required by Kyoto are only a small step
toward the major reductions needed to prevent very damaging effects from
climate change
The next step was to make a new agreement that would include all nations and
follow the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol. This conference was held in
Copenhagen in Dec., 2009. The conference is generally considered to be a failure
although by Obama's intervention the major industrialized countries made non-
binding pledge to later announce specific reduction targets for their countries.
They agreed on establishing a "Green Climate Fund"with a goal of it providing to
the developing nations $30 billion by 2012, rising to $200 billionby 2020. China
and India promised to try to limit their emissions.
.
Some of the Predictions for this Century
Unless drastic reductions are made soon in reducing global carbon dioxide
emissions, among the changes we can expect by 2100 are the following:
• Hurricanes will be more intense due to the oceans becoming warmer.
• Global temperatures will rise several degrees C, with more than average
warming in the Arctic area and in mid-continent areas.
• Ocean levels may rise by nearly a meter with added salt water intrusions
into shore areas.
• Human health will be damaged by increased exposure to infectious diseases
and by agricultural problems, particularly in the developing nations that lack the
resources to take preventive measures.
• Melting of Arctic ice may put an end to the oceans thermohaline current that
warms Eastern Europe and inluences climate throughout the world. This is not
expected to happn before 2200. Meanwhile England is getting warmer.
.